Starpedia

Technical Analysis
A method of evaluating a film's promotable package elements in terms of statistics generated by market activity, such as past financial performance and audience appeal, that seeks to detect and interpret trend patterns. The goal is to predict probable changes in the marketability of key package elements that will allow decision-makers to set viable economic parameters for budgeting, casting, greenlighting, acquiring, marketing and distributing motion pictures. Technical analysts do not attempt to measure a package element's actual future value, but instead use charts and other tools to identify future-leaning patterns. To illustrate, at a mall multiplex, a traditionalist would attend each film to study the quality of the writing, acting and direction, then use that information to decide which film projects to greenlight, acquire or promote. In contrast, a technical analyst would sit on a bench and watch which people attend which movies, when and why, then make decisions based on attendance patterns and the related activities of moviegoers.

Technical Forecasting
Any predictive method that utilizes past market activity, financial performance and trends to anticipate future outcomes

Technical Indicators Or Technicals
Any metric whose value is derived from the financial activity of an asset, such as a MarqueeStar persona. Technical indicators attempt to forecast future financial activity, or simply the general direction of a package element, by looking at past patterns. Technical indicators, collectively called "technicals", are distinguished by the fact that they do not analyze any part of the fundamental business, such as earnings, revenue and profit margins. Technical indicators are designed primarily for analyzing changes in trend movements. To a long-term investor, most technical indicators offer little value since they do not shed light on the underlying business. The most effective uses of technicals for a long-term investor are to help identify good entry and exit points for certain genres by analyzing the long-term trend.

Tentpole
Any film with such obvious popular appeal that its earnings (achieving blockbuster status of $100 million or better at the U.S. box office) will cover the losses from a studio's flops for that season, usually summer. Also any upcoming film expected by a studio to be its top grossing; often the start or an installment of a franchise. As a tentpole holds up a tent, a tentpole film holds up a studio's lineup. poles are consumer-oriented whereas locomotives are more wholesaler-oriented. (See locomotive)

Theatrical Release Pattern
The playdate volume and rollout strategy for the public exhibition of a feature film to general theater audiences. Release patterns are rapidly affected by popular preferences. After a film opens, demand is revealed and the release pattern adjusted. For example on a wide release, the exhibition contract usually calls for a minimum 4-8 week run. The number of screens will normally decline during the run, but will increase if the film demonstrates popularity. The distributor may pull the film early if it does not draw audiences, but will keep it on screens if they believe it will develop a reputation. Because of the dependence on television ad support to attract audiences, nationwide releases account for about 75% of domestic theatrical films from the major studios. This phenomenon favors big mainstream motion pictures starring trendy celebrity casts supported by costly marketing campaigns.

Title Role
The lead part in a movie or other show named for that character.

Topliner
The billed-above-the-title star of a movie or other show. (See marquee star)

Topper
The head of a company or organization.

Total Budget
The anticipated negative cost of a motion picture. (See negative cost)

Trailer (also Preview Of Coming Attractions)
The promotional reel for a motion picture so named because they originally “trailed” the main features in the cinema. Trailers normally consist of the most entertaining clips from a film edited together into a brief preview. Five types have developed: announcement trailers, viral video trailers, montage trailers, tease trailers and product reels.

Trend
The general direction of a market. Trends vary in length from short, to intermediate, to long term. In theory, by identifying a trend, decision-makers can make choices consistent with the trend, thereby increasing the probability of profitability. As a general strategy, it is best to invest with trends, meaning that if the general trend of the market is headed up, you should be very cautious about making financial commitments that rely on the trend going in the opposite direction. A trend can also apply to interest rates, yields, equities and any other market which is characterized by a long-term movement in price, revenues, valuations, activity or commercial promotability.

Trend Analysis
An aspect of technical analysis that tries to predict the future movement of a package element, such as a MarqueeStar, through an examination of its performance over time. It is frequently based on one or more financial ratios. Trend analysis is rooted in the notion that what has happened in the past indicates what will happen in the future. There are three main types of trends: short, intermediate and long term. Trend analysis attempts to predict a trend, such as a bull market run, and ride that trend until the data suggest a trend reversal (e.g. bull to bear market). Trend analysis is helpful because moving with trends, and not against them, offers greater financial security for film companies and investors.

Trend Ratio Analysis
A comparison of the successive values of each ratio for a financial asset or package element over a period of time.

Trend Reversal
A sudden change in the general direction of a market or financial asset. A reversal can be either a positive or a negative change against the prevailing trend; they are generally referred to as a "rally" on the upside and as a "correction" on the downside. Technical analysts watch for these patterns because they may indicate the need for a different production or investment strategy. (See business cycle, downtrend, uptrend)

Trendline
A technical chart line that depicts the general direction in the market value of any given financial asset. Technical analysts believe that prevailing trends, either up or down, indicate where a market is headed. (See business cycle, downtrend, trend reversal, uptrend)

Trough
The lowest point in a business cycle between the end of an economic contraction and the start of an expansion. (See business cycle, downtrend, peak, uptrend)