Our Weekend Forecast
January 15, 2010
Channing Tatum and Amanda Seyfried in 'Dear John'
Utilizing our free online package calculator, Marquee Stars offers the following box office prognostications for the upcoming weekend. They represent “typical” performance expectations as derived from recent moving averages in combination with regression analysis. Forecast results are charted against box office outcomes as they become available in the Latest Forecast Results section below.
The below prognostications were finalized on Friday morning, February 5th, based on the last announced screen counts.
Wolves in the Number Cruncher’s Hen House
Commentary by Team Tao Jonez
Posted: October 5, 2009
Bigger Picture Research recently featured Lifting the lid on studionomics - an insightful discussion by Dr. Jim Barratt about the famous Goldman rule that “nobody knows anything.” The article points out that the screenwriter laureate’s axiom was intended to underscore Hollywood’s inability to reliably predict the success or failure of any specific film. A former Head of Research & Statistics at the respected UK Film Council and now author of Bad Taste about Peter Jackson’s debut feature (Wallflower Press, December 2008), Dr. Barratt further affirms: “Goldman’s observation is unarguably true, and the reasons are plain enough. For one thing, film resides at the intersection of art and commerce, where our understanding of common-or-garden market economics is unsettled by the ineffable vagaries of creativity on the supply side, and audience whim on the demand side.”
As is usual at Bigger Picture Research, apt expression reflects cogent comprehension.
We at Marquee Stars completely concur with Dr. Barratt. We side with Goldman for the numbers debate. Our Package Calculator, for example, has never performed better than 70% predictive of actual film performance outcomes and only within a very narrow range of assumptions and maximal margins of error. (The calculator is actually intended for the limited function of comparing the relative box office strengths of different package combinations.)
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World's Favorite Films 2010
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World Favorite Foreign Language Films 2010
Yip Man 2 (Chinese)
My Name Is Khan (Bollywood)
Nodame Cantabile 2 (Japanese)
Blood Brothers: Secret Reunion (Korean)
L'arnacoeur (French)
Doraemon: Mermaid Adventure (Japanese)
Little Big Soldier (Chinese)
La rafle (French)
Io, loro e Lara (Italian)
Liar Game (Japanese)
Our Rossiya (Russian)
Younger Brother (Japanese)
Housefull (Bollywood)
Harmony (Korean)
Go Lala Go (Chinese)
Pleasant Goat and Big Big Wolf 2 (Chinese)
Chico Xavier (Portuguese)
Kandahar (Russian)
