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A MarqueeStar Is Born

HOLLYWOOD - In the beginning Vaudeville created the theater circuit.  And Edison invented the film projector.  But the celluloid heavens were dull, and without life, so Hollywood concocted movie stars.  And has commanded them forth globally ever since…

Today Marquee Stars ^SM proudly presents our Marquee Appraisal Guide ^SM - an innovative approach to charting the headliners who power the cinematic universe.  Apart from the traditional surveys of panel audiences (Nielsen Company), or of industry sales people (Forbes Star Currency, UlmerScale), or of departing moviegoers (CinemaScore), or of set-top viewers (TNS), or of website clickers (STARmeter), or of movie reviewers (Celebrity Tomatometer), or of online gamesters (Hollywood Stock Exchange) - each of which provides its unique perspective - our Marquee Appraisal Guide ranks brand name film talent based fundamentally on direct financial criteria: e.g. their adjusted opening weekend average (OWA) and adjusted average world gross (AWG).

“Brilliant,” you may be thinking.  “But that’s just obvious.”

Okay, we confess, box office grosses, video revenues and the like are rudimentary.  Still, it took a year of research-and-development to engineer this particular starlight meter.  The Marquee Stars distinction lies in the way we use financial data - stratifying then algorithmically adjusting select averages by the positioning of pictures, the prominence of roles, the visibility of players and the passage of time.  In essence, our approach may be described as a multi-dimensional system of moving averages.  (For a fuller and duller explanation of our methodology, see  Our Marquee Appraisal System and Frequently Asked Questions.)

More to the point, stating the obvious sometimes brings insights beyond the obvious - especially once core numbers have been statistically pasteurized and poured into easy-to-compare tables, charts and graphs.  And while financial data may not predict future performance, they can create sensible talent rankings and marquee package appraisals to facilitate licensing arrangements, indicate downside protections, and delineate significant facts you ought to know but found too voluminous to hold in mind.

This website began as a series of cafe conversations at the American Film Market and elsewhere between producers, directors, casting personnel, sales agents and expatriate distribution executives.  We are all aware of Goldman’s Rule: “Nobody knows anything.”  Certainly, as industry veterans, we know many film business bean counters could use a good head-soaking.  Maybe we could use a head-shrinking ourselves because, yes, our Marquee Appraisal Guide also serves to encourage the bean counters.

But if you are a filmmaker with a cast-contingent greenlight and your final pre-approved choice just fell out, or if you are a casting director who must find internationally viable names, or if you are that beleaguered producer forced to replace a key marquee name or helmer at the 11th hour prior to principal photography, Marquee Stars may help.

Whether you are a foreign sales agent, acquisitions director or content professional who needs a quick appraisal of a picture’s marquee power, or you are a studio exec, or a talent representative who seeks a fair market price, or even a movie star who wants to know which project will more likely perform, Marquee Stars may help.

And if you are a story editor, a development executive, a screenwriter, a director, a producer or a financier who wants a project-specific appraisal of an unpackaged story concept or script, Marquee Stars may help.

Now let’s be perfectly forthright:  Talent rankings have always confounded both dealmakers and filmmakers … right from their inception in 1914 when W.W. Hodkinson used block-booking to guarantee the first pre-sale.  The disenchantment usually stems from the fact that talent rankings are now compiled largely by industry watchers rather than by the decision-makers who use them.  Both Big Hollywood and the broader industry need a reliable frame of reference for star power, and only arms-length third-party sources can provide that assessment without transgressing anti-trust regulations.

Of course these third-party industry watchers, usually quantitative data analysts or trade journalists, are all dispassionate, reputable and conscientious professionals. They each offer a different piece of the puzzle but without experiencing the consequences: They have never been compelled by marketers to restrict their marquee search to exactly three not-remotely-affordable names. They have never been instructed by a studio boss to inflate the budget of a project beyond its concept viability in order to accommodate a recent agency deal for bigger stars. They have never been pressured by a financier, or his sales agent, to cast a major star in an unsuitable role who in turn demanded that an innovative comedic action thriller should be rewritten into a not-so-good romantic comedy. They have never been arm-twisted by a sales staff to headline a new star of the hottest recent pre-sale to a couple key territories only to discover, when the new show comes to market, that the former pre-sale has bombed at the box office and that the must-have star is now colder than an iceberg.

Such problematic situations arise in good measure because traditional talent rankings are non-responsive to the industry’s ongoing need for the largest possible range of responsible marquee alternatives.  And the ranking systems currently in use have done little to enlighten the industry’s many tunnel-visionaries who continue to demand only the exact same five celebrity names.

The focus group panel-driven ranking systems, like political polling, are best at anticipating a film’s immediate demographic appeal and opening weekend gross.  Often orchestrated out of New York City, these “panels” favor the domestic markets whether consciously or not … an astounding shortcoming in an era when foreign revenues routinely comprise 65% of a film’s total income.  The resultant talent rankings also place too much weight on the immediate pre-release period prior to the opening weekend.

So a quality actress such as Penélope Cruz, whose pictures usually open in Spain or through a domestic arthouse platform release, will be assigned a ranking that understates the consistently strong revenue performances of her films.  Certainly most Hollywood talent agencies insist that when you hire a movie star, you hire the star’s opening weekend gross.  The closing gross, they argue, is entirely up to the producer, the director and the distributor. And while that dictum may have been true when over 80% of film revenues came from the domestic marketplace, its time has passed.  The data no longer support the supposition.

Meanwhile the survey-driven ranking systems, typically polling the armchair opinions of international middlemen, managers, agents, film buyers and foreign sales people, are appropriate for identifying the most sought-after flavors of the month. But these talent rankings really reflect imprecise, off-the-cuff, short-term impressions rather than the factual numbers that inform those impressions. And since they are not published with regularity, they are obsolete almost instantly.

Finally, both the panel-driven and the survey-driven approaches, by virtue of their methodologies, can be unduly restrictive and unfairly exclusionary and, except for the very high-profile movie stars, downright lethargic in their ability to respond broadly to an ever-changing international marketplace.  Even worse.  Because of their misguided overemphasis on only a handful of celebrity names, they contribute mightily to the industry’s dysfunctional tendency for production costs to rise much faster than revenues.

And that affects everyone … particularly in lean times.

Marquee Stars ^SM addresses these problems by providing the financial performance bonafides for underappreciated marquee talent at all budget tiers and in all significant territories.  We empower you to make the case for that unconventional yet artistically ideal star.  Our goal is to expand the range of “bankable” creative choices throughout the global content community.  If the widest possible selection of publicly-traded corporations can be ranked daily based on objective financial criteria, then so can marquee talent.  We offer 21^st century solutions:

1. Marquee Stars ^SM remains near real-time, on-line and heavily present-value oriented.

We update weekly. Consequently our Top Opener appraisal rankings adjust immediately to new market dynamics and thereafter change little. Our Top Closer appraisal rankings, on the other hand, will sometimes demonstrate greater volatility as new film releases work their way through global markets. These rankings then self-correct within weeks, not unlike stocks on a stock exchange. So checking the rankings with some regularity makes good sense.

We esteem the international box office identically with the Anglo-American domestic box office and, for that reason, we include more indie and non-English-speaking stars - even stars never yet imported and dubbed into English.  Also, as much as possible, we rank by the numbers and by activity, without any consideration for who likes whom or who’s angry with whom.  Hollywood schmoozing makes no difference.

To illustrate, icons such as Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, Sean Connery, Mel Gibson, Cher and your favorite TV stars clearly offer a marquee footprint. However Marquee Stars appraises only the stars of bellwether theatrical motion pictures - those that grossed better than a 2009-constant-dollar value of $5.2 million (€3.75m, £3.58m, ¥479.84m, Cn¥35.48m, Rs250.24m, Kr₩ 6.87b, руб152.90m) within the past two years for the Most Active reports or within the previous four years for the Less Active reports.  Furthermore, our numbers remain oblivious to the forward-looking, market-making “studio buzz” that admittedly can sometimes cinch a talent deal.

2. Marquee Stars ^SM provides an online Package Appraisal Calculator.

Unique to our ranking system, the online Package Appraisal Calculator anticipates the relative box office strength of any combination of on-camera and off-camera marquee talent based on overall statistical averages. With our system, not everything depends on just one or two high-profile performers. Simply type in the appropriate data from our Marquee Appraisal Guide.  Remember, though, because the calculator cannot predict actual performance revenue dollars within a consistent margin of error, the output figures should be regarded as a rough guide.  Nevertheless, for identifying relative marquee power four, six, twelve, eighteen or twenty-four months in advance - when most talent-related capital decisions are made - we may have the best system available.  (For more detail, see Our Marquee Appraisal System.)

3. Marquee Stars ^SM offers a large variety of appraisal reports.

“A-List” and “B-List” carry somewhat different meanings for Marquee Stars ^SM from their classic Hollywood connotations.  We regard mainstream pictures separately from specialty & genre pictures.  Accordingly, A-List refers to mainstream; B-List refers to specialty & genre.  The same actors may appear on both lists.  Brad Pitt in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and Amy Adams in Enchanted are ranked separately from Brad Pitt in The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford and Amy Adams in Sunshine Cleaning.  In effect, the Marquee Stars approach encourages talent who periodically choose that daring smaller project since specialty pictures do not immediately impact their mainstream rankings.

Our A-Lists and B-Lists categorize talent roughly along these lines:

• A-Lists - Mainstream
  • Anchors
  • Support
  • Featured
• B-Lists - Specialty & Genre
  • Anchors
  • Support
  • Featured

Moreover, a custom Marquee Stars statistical diagnostic report may reveal a surprising range of market strengths.

For example, reflecting on the evanescence of contemporary acting careers, studio-boss-turned-Variety-VP-and-editorial-director Peter Bart once observed, “Ben Affleck went from being a ‘comer’ in Chasing Amy, to a movie star in Pearl Harbor to a has-been in Gigli, and he’s barely 35 years old.”  Mr. Bart’s institutional credentials are unquestionable.  Yet a Marquee Stars diagnostic report would have told a slightly different tale:  Mr. Affleck’s considerable writing and directing prowess notwithstanding, his overall marquee footprint corrected downward following a series of ill-fated comedies: a common career pratfall - too many consecutive times at bat with the same dwindling niche audience.  But as the star of smart sci-fi and action thrillers, or as the heartthrob in straightahead romances, his footprint appraisal still shows strength.  For these genres, according to our Marquee Stars diagnostic reports, Ben Affleck retains considerable box office clout.

Conversely, how about the confounding case of the magical Harry Potter franchise? Over time, its opening weekend demographic has morphed from a duogender family audience to a majority female audience of college-age or older. Yet that demographic drift alone does not fully explain why third-billed Emma Watson has shown progressively stronger appeal with debut audiences, sometimes even outshining Daniel Radcliffe in the title role. Our diagnostic reports suggest that Mr. Radcliffe’s star power has been unduly dimmed by the creative decision to maintain emphasis on the visual effects-laden action elements over the book series’ impassioned teenage romantic intrigues.

To find overlooked talent and to uncover subtle oversights at every size budget, Marquee Stars offers both standard Marquee Appraisal Guide reports and custom project-specific statistical diagnostic reports:

Standard Reports

• By Persona - This report is our master marquee appraisal list sorted alphabetically by surname. It is designed for use with the online Package Appraisal Calculator ^SM
• Top Openers - This report provides our take on the traditional leading indicator of star power as sorted by the adjusted Opening Weekend Average (OWA) box office gross.  It tends to favor the domestic market.
• Top Closers - This report isour overall measure of a star persona’s footprint sorted by the adjusted Average World Gross(AWG).  It fairly balances domestic with international.

Statistical Diagnostic Reports

As a custom service, Marquee Stars ^SM can provide a short statistical market diagnostic of specific projects, prospective screenplay properties, or marquee packages for those filmmakers and funders who require corroboration of their choices from a neutral third-party.

Our statistical market diagnostics are based on the following elements as defined by you:

• On-Camera Cast
• Off-Camera Filmmakers
• Distributor
• Budget Range
• Breadth of Appeal
• Genre Elements
• Story Elements
• Target Audience
• Audience Satisfaction
• Maturity Rating

4. Marquee Stars ^SM also ranks principal producers, screenwriters and directors.

Why should actors have all the fun? At least someone at the negotiating table ought to know what it’s like to be watched, haggled over and tossed about as a commodity. A tiny taste of that experience may bring negotiators a better sense of when to hold firm to the number-crunching, and when to let it go.

Returning to screenwriter laureate William Goldman, his 1983 book Adventures in the Screen Trade reviewed the predictive track records of notable Hollywood gurus and famously concluded, “Nobody knows anything.”  And, indeed, none of the conventional metrics would have anticipated financial flops for by-the-numbers packages like All the King’s Men, Death to Smoochy, Gigli, Howard the Duck and Town & Country; nor box office bonanzas for prescient projects like The Blair Witch Project, Fireproof, Juno, Once, Open Water, Little Miss Sunshine, The Passion of the Christ, Slumdog Millionaire or even the first Star Wars.  Marquee Stars views this metrics-versus-vision debate as very much akin to the nature-versus-nurture debate in psychology.  Numbers can suggest a course, and may even be able to guide us half way toward our destination, but at some point a farsighted team of hands-on professionals must flip off the auto-pilot and fly us safely home.

In truth, film success comes from an enchanting alchemy between material, filmmakers, marketers, reviewers and their respective quicksilver abilities to connect with audiences.

Nonetheless, at any size budget, financial backers always demand reliable up-to-the-minute analyses of who’s hot in the marketplace - and why.  Until now, independents and indigenous overseas filmmakers have had to refer their backers to a once-a-year directory of names … or to the waffling opinions of that well-intentioned sales agent who checked with exactly one buyer in Germany (with whom s/he happens to have a video output deal) … or to that cheerful studio marketer who’s too busy to do anything other than text-message the cast preferences of his son’s junior high videogame team.

Sounds frivolous and ridiculous. But it happens. We have stood in those filmmaker shoes and we know…

Defense against the Dark Arts is the chief reason Marquee Stars ^SM updates weekly.  (Not everyone can afford Rentrak Essentials, nor can wait for the annual surveys and recaps.)  Our basic Top-50 sample appraisal reports are posted for easy reference while our complete Marquee Appraisal Guide, with its three corollary reports, may be downloaded for free.  Our online Package Appraisal Calculator - which like the Appraisal Guide is free - roughly contrasts the combined appraisal values of different on-camera and/or off-camera talent combinations.  And, rather than obscure formulas spitting out mysterious metrics, Marquee Stars provides a blunt bottom line about the money:  We use dollars and cents to appraise marquee power.

Go to the Marquee Appraisal Guide