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Box Office Trends

As of March 14, 2010

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Our Weekend Forecast

January 15, 2010

Utilizing our free online package calculator, Marquee Stars offers the following box office prognostications for the upcoming weekend.  They represent “typical” performance expectations as derived from recent moving averages in combination with regression analysis.  Forecast results are charted against box office outcomes as they become available in the Latest Forecast Results section below.

The below prognostications were finalized on Friday morning, February 5th, based on the last announced screen counts.

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Latest Forecast Results

Posted: February 5, 2010

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Indiewood Circuit

Posted: January 2, 2010

Broken Embraces (Los Abrazos Rotos)

Director: Pedro Almodóvar
Writer: Pedro Almodóvar
Producers: Esther García

Stars:

Penélope Cruz
Lluís Homar
Blanca Portillo

Tri-genre: noir romance suspense
Story Situation: dangerous love
Satisfaction Rating: above average
Maturity Rating: 13+

Plotline: Mateo (Lluis Homar) lives, lusts and writes in the dark.  He was the victim of a violent car accident fourteen years previously.  Not only did he lose his vision, but also the love of his life, Lena (Penelope Cruz).  He was a movie director and Lena was his leading lady on-set and steamy lover off-set.  But it was a secret passion because Lena was stuck in an intimate relationship with jealous aging tycoon Ernesto (Jose Luis Gomez).  The situation grows increasingly tense as Lena pulls away from the ever-suspicious Ernesto and into the arms of her true love Mateo … until the accident.

Now, under the pseudonym Harry Caine, Mateo lives a quiet life as a novelist with his past suppressed. But after an unintended drug mishap involving Diego (Tamar Novas), the son of his business partner Judit (Blanca Portillo), Mateo sits vigilantly at his bedside and entertains him by recounting the whole sad tale, revealing his suspcion that the tycoon’s son Ray (Ruben Ochandiano) may have been responsible for the fatal accident and that he may not yet be done with his underhanded deeds.  Then Judit reveals the truth that Diego is Mateo’s own son from their short fling. Suspicion now turns to her.

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Dutch Circuit

Posted: December 31, 2009

Komt een vrouw bij de dokter (A Woman Goes to the Doctor)

Director: Reinout Oerlemans
Writer: Gert Embrechts
Producers: Hans De Weers, Reinout Oerlemans

Stars:

Carice van Houten
Barry Atsma
Anna Drijver

Tri-genre: medical romance drama
Story Situation: love triangle - infidelity
Satisfaction Rating: above average
Maturity Rating: 13+

Plotline: Based on the novel by Kluun:  Stijn (Barry Atsma) and Carmen (Carice van Houten) live an idyllic life in suburban Amsterdam: young, attractive, successful, wealthy, in love and with a newborn daughter.  Then Carmen is diagnosed with breast cancer.  Suddenly she’s confronting chemotherapy, radiation, hair loss, voimiting, and constant visits in and out of the hospital.  By day, Stijn is Carmen’s true and loyal rock, completely supportive, but by night, he has trouble coping.  He secretly starts living a double life, frequenting clubs, drinking to excess and indulging in sexual trysts with lots of women.  Carmen has always tolerated Stijn’s occasional dalliance, but after her breast is removed, she feels less confident and finds herself troubled by his infidelity.  On Stijn’s part, the trysts have always been just sex, until he meets beautiful sultry Roos (Anna Drijver).

Then a miracle occurs: Carmen is in remission.

Carmen asks Stijn to stop his extramarital affairs and to work things out between them.  He quickly agrees.  They go on holiday together in an attempt to repair their relationship unil Carmen discovers that Roos is still in contact with Stijn.  She breaks down and demands a divorce.  But being stuck together in a far off vacation paradise eventually brings them closer than they have been in a long time.  By the time they return home, they are reconciled.  A week later Carmen gets sick again.  The cancer has spread.  She has months to live.  Stijn again escapes into the arms of Roos.  He continues to support Carmen through her hospital treatments, but his double life has gotten busier.  Sex with Roos has become like a drug addiction.  After another terrible fight with Carmen, Steijn gets in his car under the influence of alcohol and causes a multi-car pile-up.  Nobody gets hurt except Stiin, who sustains some cuts and bruises.  But he must spend the night in jail.  That’s when he has an epiphany.  His double life is now over.

He returns home determined to care for Carmen and Luna for as long as it takes.  Carmen is very sick.  Family and friends stay close.  When she uncontrollably wets herself in bed, Carmen decides she has had enough.  She can only get worse.  She says goodbye to all her loved ones, including Luna, before her doctor performs a legally-authorized euthanasia.  Stijn stays by her side until the last.  Some time later, Stijn and Luna are together in Australia.  They open a special box that Carmen made for Luna.

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Hollywood Circuit

Avatar

Director: James Cameron
Writer: James Cameron
Producers: James Cameron, Jon Landau

Stars:

Sam Worthington
Zoe Saldana
Sigourney Weaver

Tri-genre: hypothetical virtuality science fiction
Story Situation: space travel
Satisfaction Rating: excellent
Maturity Rating: 13+

Plotline: In a perhaps not-so-distant future, wheelchair-bound paraplegic combat Marine veteran Jake (Sam Worthington) travels to the planet Pandora to replace his deceased twin brother on a scientific expedition led by Dr. Grace Augustine (Sigourney Weaver) to make peace with the native humanoid inhabitants, the Na’vi.  The primitive planet is being mined by a corporate consortium for a unique counter-gravity mineral that could solve Earth’s critical energy crisis.  Because Pandora’s atmosphere is unbreathable, and because humans look so different from the 12-foot long-tailed, blue-skinned natives, expedition team members have their minds linked to a remote-controlled biological Na’vi body, or “avatar,” a genetically-engineered bio-matched hybrid of each human’s own DNA with native DNA.  The richest ore deposits are located underneath the Na’vi’s sacred “home tree.”  Jake’s mission, separate from Dr. Augustine’s scientific research, is to convince the Na’vi to peacefully relocate and allow the mining.  Otherwise, in three months, Col. Quaritch’s (Stephen Lang) gung-ho mercenary army will force them out.

On the first day of the expedition into Pandora’s Jurassic rain forest, Jake is separated from his team when attacked by a giant hammerhead rhino creature, then rescued at nightfall from the many Jurassic beasts by nimble Na’vi princess Neytiri (Zoe Saldana).  Neytiri’s father (Wes Studi), the tribal chief, orders her to teach Jake the ways of the Na’vi during a probationary period while he decides what to do with him.  Jake’s relationship with his reluctant teacher soon blossoms into a romance as Jake learns to respect the Na’vi and their harmonious communion with nature, and comes to comprehend the importance of their sacred areas to their lives.  Torn between loyalties, Jake finally chooses to lead the Na’vi in a defensive battle against the attacking corporate mercenary machine.

Move over George Lucas…
With this ingenious masterwork, auteur director James Cameron now lays claim to the mantle of Hollywood’s greatest epic sci-fi filmmaker.  He makes it look easy.  And it’s not.  He makes the story seem simple.  But it’s not.  Tiny threads are drawn from 2001 Space Odyssey, Jurassic Park, We Were Soldiers, Dances with Wolves, The Incredible Hulk and Pinocchio (yes, Jake becomes a real boy), then all these elements are seamlessly woven into a Pocahontas love story.  At the same time, Cameron delivers a cautionary subtextual message about natural resources and hot-headed militarism with obvious implications for the modern era.  Also, with landmark next-generation motion-captured CGI visual effects, this film should be studied by upcoming filmmakers for many years to come.  Breakthrough performances include Australia’s Sam Worthington (Terminator Salvation), Cameron veteran Sigourney Weaver (Aliens) and especially CGI-enveloped Zoe Saldana (Star Trek, Drumline).

Oh, yeah, Avatar ought to be an instant contender for Oscar’s Best Picture.

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Chinese Circuit

Posted: December 20, 2009

The First Gun (aka A Simple Noodle Story; San qiang pai an jing qi; 三枪拍案惊奇 )

Director: Yimou Zhang
Writer: Jianquan Shi, Jing Shang
Producers:  William Kong, Weiping Zhang

Stars:

Honglei Sun
Shenyang Xiao
Ni Yan

Tri-genre: crime dramedy suspense
Story Situation: intrigue
Satisfaction Rating: good
Maturity Rating: 13+

Plotline:  A jealous Chinese noodle shop owner (Shenyang Xiao) hires an assassin to kill his cheating young wife (Ni Yan) and her lover.  The scheme goes quickly awry after someone brings a gun to a sword fight.  Based on the Cohen brother’s 1985 debut film Blood Simple.

Comment:  This co-production between Sony Picture Classics and Beijing New Picure Film Company with China’s premier director Yimou Zhang constitutes Zhang’s his first attempt at a commercial mainstream picture following a three-year hiatus during which he orchestrated the opening and closing ceremonies for the Beijing Olympic Games.

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Bollywood Circuit

Posted: December 16, 2009

De Dana Dan

Director: Priya Darshan
Writer: Priya Darshan
Producers: Ganesh Jain, Girish Jain
Stars:

Katrina Kaif
Aksay Kumar (Best Actor recipient - Filmfare, International Indian Film Academy)
Sunil Shetty (Best Villain recipient - Filmfare)

Tri-genre: crime situation comedy
Story Situation: heist
Satisfaction Rating: good
Maturity Rating: 7+

Plotline: Two Indian guys in Singapore, Nitin (Akshay Kumar) and Ram (Sunil Shetty), are lucky in love but not in their livelihoods.  They both work low-level jobs.  Nitin is not only poor but deep in debt.  Then their well-heeled girlfriends, Anjali (Katrina Kaif) and Manpreet (Sameera Reddy), deliver an ultimatum: earn enough money to elope or their families will demand that each girl accept an arranged marriage.  Now desperate, the guys come up with a scheme to make fast money.  They will dognap Moolchandji, the pampered pet of ritzy snob Archana (Archana Puran Singh).  Moolchandji runs away.  The police think Nitin has been kidnapped. And just when the guys learn the ransom money is on the way, the plan falls apart as a Tong boss, a hitman, a white collar crime investigator, a showgirl, an ambassador, a frustrated wife, a letch, a drunk and a dead body noboby wants all get in the way.  The film re-teams the comedic trio from Hera Pheri after a 9 year lapse.

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French Circuit

Posted: December 15, 2009

Vilain, Le

Director: Albert Dupontel
Writer: Albert Dupontel, Diane Clavier, Simon Moutairou
Producer: Catherine Bozorgan
Stars:

Catherine Frot (Best Supporting Actress recipient - César)
Albert Dupontel (Best Actor nomination - César)
Bouli Lanners

Tri-genre: crime dark comedy
Story Situation: on-the-run
Satisfaction Rating: above average
Maturity Rating: 7+

Plotline: With gun-toting criminals on his tail, ex-bank robber Sidney, aka “The Villain” (Albert Dupontel), returns to his mother’s home after 20 years to hide out.  His mother, Maniette (Catherine Frot), is both naïve and bigoted and provides easy refuge from his pursuers.  Meanwhile unscrupulous land developer Nick Korazy (Bouli Lanners) attempts to buy up the neighborhood so he can evict the residents and turn the area into a new banking district.  Maniette leads the neighbors in protest — much to Sidney’s dismay although he admires his mother’s ingenious methods.  When he objects to her efforts, she realizes her son’s true nature and decides she must put him back on the path of righteousness.  A mercilessly farcial duel immediately commences between mother and son as he fights back with sneaky traps and she counters with underhanded tricks.

German Circuit

Posted: December 8, 2009

Zweiohrküken (Chick with Two Ears)

Director: Til Schweiger
Writers: Anika Decker, Til Schweiger
Producers: Til Schweiger, Tom Zickler
Stars:

Tri-genre: relationships comedy romance
Story Situation: period-of-adjustment
Satisfaction Rating: good
Maturity Rating: 13+

Plotline: In this follow-up to last year’s surprise comedy hit Keinohrhasen (Rabbit without Ears) - the title a refernce to a child’s favorite stuffed animal - two years have past since lothario tabloid journalist Ludo (Til Schweiger) was sentenced to 300 hours of community service in a kindergarten where he fell in love with head mistress Anna (Nora Tschirner). The intoxication of first-blush romance has given way to the routine of daily life. Jealousy now enters the relationship when Ludo’s old flame Marie (Edita Malovcic) reconnects with him; and reconnects again and again. Although Ludo has no intention of betraying his commitment to Anna, he rebels against her neurotic attempts to rein him in and demands she give him some space. Then Anna’s former lover Ralf (Ken Duken) shows up and suddenly her neurotic shoe fits his foot.

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Russian Circuit

Posted: December 8, 2009

Tsar (Царь)

Director(s):  Pavel Lungin (Best Director recipient - Nikita; nominee - César awards)
Writer(s): Aleksei Ivanov
Producer(s):  Pavel Lungin, Olga Vasileva
Star(s):

• Pyotr Mamonov (Best Actor - Nikita award)
• Oleg Yankovskiy (2-time Best Actor - Nikita award)

Tri-genre:  period suspense drama
Story Situation:  house divided
Satisfaction Rating:  above average
Maturity Rating: 13+

Plotline:  Russia, 1565.  In the desperate shadow of the Livonian War against Scandinavia and Poland, Tsar Ivan the Terrible (Pyotr Mamonov) imagines treachery everywhere as he attempts to prepare Russia for Christianity’s Judgment Day.  His guardsmen ruthlessly destroy anyone who might get in his way, thereby imposing Tsar Ivan’s iron will through terror and filling the country with the blood and starvation of innocents.  Only Metropolitan Bishop Philip (the late Oleg Yankovskiy) of the Solovestsky Islands, once a trusted and loyal childhood friend of the Tsar himself, dares to speak out against the monarch’s misguided dictates.  A King Henry-Archbishop Thomas Becket-style showdown quickly ensues.

Comment:  This final screen performance by actor Oleg Yankovskiy metaphorically presages the paranoid Soviet reign of Joseph Stalin where moral justice was sacrificed for delusional altruistic goals.  Upon Yankovskiy’s death from pancreatic cancer, Russian President Vladimir Putin eulogized him as an actor’s actor “sent by God.”

Scandinavian Circuit

Posted: December 8, 2009

Luftslottet som sprängdes (The Girl Who Kicked the Hornet’s Nest)

Director(s): Daniel Alfredson (Best Director recipient - Guldbagge award)
Writer(s): Jonas Frykberg (Best Director recipient - Guldbagge award), Ulf Rudberg
Producer(s): Jon Mankell
Star(s):

• Noomi Rapace (Best Actress recipient - Bodil award)
• Michael Nyqvist (Best Actor recipient - Guldbagge award)

Tri-genre: crime thriller suspense
Story Situation: targeted
Satisfaction Rating: above average
Maturity Rating: 13+

Plotline: In the final installment of the trilogy based on novelist Stieg Larsson’s Millenium series, Goth computer hacker Lisbeth Salander (Noomi Rapace) is seriously wounded in the shootout that ended the previous episode.  She awakes in a hospital with a gunshot to the head and leather police restraints to hold her in place.  Soon she realizes she’s being treated in the same intensive care unit a few doors down from her arch enemy Alexander Zalachenko (Georgi Staykov) - her biological father and former Russian agent - whom she wounded during the shootout.  Lisbeth knows she must engineer her removal from the hospital before Zalachenko can recover his strength sufficiently to try to kill her again.  After that, she will have to deal with accomplice psychiatrist Dr. Teleborian’s (Anders Ahlbom-Rosendahl) attempt to commit her to an asylum, as well as with her arraignment by the government prosecutor for three murders she did not commit.  Meanwhile, Millenium magazine’s editor Mikael Blomkvist (Michael Nyqvist) intensifies his efforts to exonerate Lisbeth by exposing the criminal conspiracy that stretches into the highest levels of the Swedish secret service.

Japanese Circuit

Posted: November 29, 2009

Zero Focus (Zero no Shuten, ゼロの焦点)

Director: Isshin Inudou
Screenwriters: Kenji Nakazono, Isshin Inudou

Stars:

Ryoko Hirosue … Sadako
Miki Nakatani … Sachiko
Takashi Kaga … Gisaku
Tae Kimura … Hisako

Tri-genre: crime mystery suspense
Story Situation: riddle
Satisfaction Rating: above average
Maturity Rating: 0+

Plotline:  About 1957.  One week into Ryoko Hiroshue’s arranged marriage, her husband Hidetoshi Nishijima fails to return from a brief business trip.  When his employer calls to inquire about his whereabouts, she decides to follow him to Kanazawa.  There she triggers a sequence of murders when she questions two women, Miki Nakatani and Tae Kimura, from her husband’s client company.  As events progress, she realizes her husband led a double life and that she is tracking a serial killer from inside the world of prostitution.

Comment:  Until his death in 1992, mystery writer Seicho Matsumoto was Japan’s Raymond Chandler, providing a literary wellspring for multitudes of films and television shows.  This prestige remake of a 1961 film offers a more faithful version of Matsumoto’s popular novel of the same name.  Visualized in the style of a Hitchcock thriller, Zero Focus also includes a protracted Ellory Queen wrap-up explanation upon revelation of the killer that, although commonplace in Japanese cinema, tends not to play well in other markets.

Korean Circuit

Posted: November 29, 2009

• Yeh-jin Park … Tae-rang
• Chang-jung Lim … Seung-won
• Yeong-hie Seo … Ji-hye

Fortune Salon (Cheongdam Bosal, ì²­ë‹´ë³´ì‚´)

Supermodel gorgeous, 27-year-old virgin and gifted clairvoyant to the stars Yeh-jin Park has the worst luck in men even though she specializes in helping her celebrity clients find love.  When she was a child, her equally clairvoyant mother told her she would meet her true Mr. Right before she turns 28:  His birthdate will be 11 pm on May 16.  One day, while walking down the street in a ritzy section of Seoul, down-on-his-luck ex-race horse jockey turned parttime stable boy Chang-chung Lim spots a 10,000-won bill ($1.45) and unintentionally throws himself in front of Yeh-jin’s car.  In the aftermath of the accident, Yeh-jin gets Chang-chung to the hospital and offers him a generous cash settlement. Concurrently, she coincidentally reconnects with handsome old boyfriend Jun-hyeok Lee.  Then she learns that scruffy good-for-nothing Chan-chung was born at 11 pm on May 16.

Spanish Circuit

Posted: November 29, 2009

SPAIN

• Alberto Ammann … Juan Oliver
• Luis Tosar … Malamadre (Best Actor recipient - Goya award)
• Carlos Bardem … Apache
• Marta Etura … Elena (2-time Best Actress nominee - Goya award)
• Daniel Monzon (Best New Director recipient - Goya award)
  

Celda 211 (Cell 211)

Accidentally knocked unconscious and left in cell 211 at the outbreak of a prison riot, new guard Alberto Ammann must pose as an inmate, develop raport with riot leader Luis Tosar and quell a spreading nationwide Basque separatist riot in order to get back home to his pregnant wife Marta Etura.

Turkish Circuit

Posted: November 4, 2009

Star Power Ratio Analysis

2 October 2009

The below ratio statistics identify the inner workings of star power, often revealing undervalued performers and new rising stars.  The BO (Box Office) Quotient provides a proximal indication of the average revenues impact of promotional moneys spent on a marquee star’s pictures.  The GO (Gross-to-Opening) Ratio measures the average volume of ongoing business, or “legs,” for a star’s pictures.  Art market stars tend to build higher GO Ratios owing to the nature of platform release patterns.  Still, these ratios provide an alternative look at marquee strength by deemphasizing the marketing impact of high concept.