Those Dazzling Dames from Ukraine
Exotic Ethnicity behind Hollywood’s Hottest
Posted: December 17, 2009
Beyond Oscar winners Walter Matthau (aka Вальтер Матущанскаяски - Walter Matuschanskayasky) and Jack Palance (aka Володимир Паланюк - Volodymyr Palanyuk), and despite a worldwide population roughly equivalent to the French, Ukrainians as an ethnic minority have gone largely unrepresented in Hollywood films. Prior to 1991, Ukraine had been partitioned and dominated by successively restrictive foreign governments for more than two centuries. Immigration to the West was limited.
But with the present Golden Globe nomination of Vera Farmiga for Best Supporting Actress in Up in the Air, ethnic Ukrainian leading ladies have clearly taken their place on the world stage with genuine star power. Besides Farmiga, their ranks include Mila Kunis, Olga Kurylenko, Milla Jovovich as well as multi-talented European pop diva Ani Lorak.
All five women speak both fluent English and Ukrainian.
Vera Farmiga (Вера Фарміґа)
The daughter of Ukrainian immigrants, Farmiga was born and raised inside an insular Ukrainian community in New Jersey. She did not learn English until age 6. Best known for her roles as the mother in The Boy in the Striped Pajamas, as Matt Damon’s psychiatrist lover in The Departed, and as George Clooney’s last chance love-on-the-run in Up in the Air.
Sandra Bullock — Courage at the Top
Sandra Bullock in 'The Blind Side'
Bullock with Ryan Reynolds in 'The Proposal'
At a career stage when most lead actresses fade from the limelight, Sandra Bullock emerged this year with her two personal best box office openers: The Proposal and The Blind Side. Moreover, with her all-time top opener The Blind Side, she did it on her own … as the sole marquee anchor … in a marketplace crowded with new event pictures … by delivering a charismatic Oscar-worthy performance … like nothing she has done before … in a genre different from her usual chick-flick comedies, phone-it-in romances and thrillers buoyed by a popular male co-star. Bullock ought to garner great respect within industry circles for creating this compassionate in-your-face mother character as well as for her bold choice in selecting this project.
Certainly, Bullock knew that if The Blind Side did not work with audiences, studio chiefs might well have regarded it as a decline in her stardom. Instead Bullock signals that her best is yet to come.
Top Actresses
Watts, Connelly, McAdams Top the Best Buy List; Streep, Aniston, Hathaway Balance Price with Prominence
Naomi Watts
Forbes.com’s Celebrity Valuations recently released its compilation of the Top-10 women stars whose last three pictures in over-500 screen releases earned the largest revenues (including box office, DVD and television licensing less budget costs) in proportion with their compensation packages. For example, Naomi Watts’ metric of 44 means $44 were returned for every $1 paid for her services as a performer. Of course, since actual numbers for actor compensation and picture revenues are difficult to verify, the Forbes valuations are based on estimates.
In the chart below, the Forbes valuations are compared with their Marquee Star appraisals. Marquee Stars ranks performers in accordance with box office prominence as expressed in millions of present-value dollars. Top Openers provide the average opening weekend gross, and Top Closers the average final gross.
Not surprisingly, the bottom half of the Forbes Top-10 tend to appear in the top half of the Marquee Stars appraisals owing to larger salaries paid to actresses in higher profile films. Meryl Streep, Jennifer Aniston and Anne Hathaway offer the best balance between cost-return and box office prominence.
Will New Studio Chief Change Hollywood?
(L-R) Disney cable stars Shia LaBeouf, Miley Cyrus and Zac Efron
Chairman of Disney Studios Rich Ross
With 60-70% of major studio profits now coming from the cable-TV sector, the ascent of Rich Ross to chairman of Walt Disney Studios reinforces a clear business model for the near future at Disney that has already generated new international marquee stars Shia LeBeouf, Miley Cyrus and Zac Efron. Other studios may soon emulate. As President of Disney Channels Worldwide, Ross demonstrated how to build cable franchises that attract the difficult under-25 audience, such as Hannah Montana, That’s so Raven, Wizards of Waverly Place and High School Musical, and to propel them toward box office and merchandising bonanzas. He also expanded that division to 94 channels with feeds into 163 countries and 32 languages.
Other major studios heavily invested in the cable sector include General Electric/Vivendi (Universal, NBC, A&E, MSNBC), National Amusements/Viacom (Paramount, CBS, MTV, Nickelodeon), News Corporation (20th Century, Fox Network, Fox News, Fox Sports, British Sky Channel, Family Channel) and Time-Warner (Warner Pictures, WB Network, HBO, CNN, Cartoonland).
But will a cable-centric business strategy enable major studios to keep pace with emerging technology? Over the coming decade, digital distribution will replace DVD with online video-on-demand as well as merge free broadcast television with the Internet. A disaggregation of the cable-television networks could then play havoc with all current business-as-usual.
Wolves in the Number Cruncher’s Hen House
Commentary by Team Tao Jonez
Posted: October 5, 2009
Bigger Picture Research recently featured Lifting the lid on studionomics - an insightful discussion by Dr. Jim Barratt about the famous Goldman rule that “nobody knows anything.” The article points out that the screenwriter laureate’s axiom was intended to underscore Hollywood’s inability to reliably predict the success or failure of any specific film. A former Head of Research & Statistics at the respected UK Film Council and now author of Bad Taste about Peter Jackson’s debut feature (Wallflower Press, December 2008), Dr. Barratt further affirms: “Goldman’s observation is unarguably true, and the reasons are plain enough. For one thing, film resides at the intersection of art and commerce, where our understanding of common-or-garden market economics is unsettled by the ineffable vagaries of creativity on the supply side, and audience whim on the demand side.”
As is usual at Bigger Picture Research, apt expression reflects cogent comprehension.
We at Marquee Stars completely concur with Dr. Barratt. We side with Goldman for the numbers debate. Our Package Calculator, for example, has never performed better than 70% predictive of actual film performance outcomes and only within a very narrow range of assumptions and maximal margins of error. (The calculator is actually intended for the limited function of comparing the relative box office strengths of different package combinations.)
Moviegoers 2010
Internet Upends Traditional Assumptions
BEVERLY HILLS - A new research study, called Moviegoers: 2010, presented by the marketing firm Stradella Road on September 29th challenges current assumptions about generational media consumption and, potentially, could transform the way movies are marketed. The underlying field research was conducted by Nielsen’s National Research Group (NRG) and focused on frequent filmgoers (people who attend 6 or more films per year) in the US.
Frequent filmgoers account for over 85% of tickets purchased each year.
The study affirms that:
- All age groups have embraced digital media,
- Each generation consumes both traditional mass media and new digital media differently,
- Each generation must be approached differently, and,
- The relevant generational groupings for film marketers are different from the standard age quandrants of teens, under 25, over 25 and family.
This study could not be more timely. Hollywood marketers spend most of their time trying to reach the under 25s - particularly troublesome because that audience most easily finds other things to do than see a movie. Under 25s now spend an average of 19.8 hours per week online, followed by 14.3 hours in front of a television. According to the MPAA, over the past decade moviegoing has dropped 21% among the under 25s, as well as 24% among the 25-29 year-olds.
However, by redefining the age quadrants consistent with group behavior as 13-17 years (teens), 18-30 years (young adults), 30-39 years (older adults), and over 40 years (mature), marketers should be able to target their promotions to the media channels where each quadrant separately spends most of its time. Family as a grouping will be automatically included with this demographic approach. Characteristic group behaviors follow:
The Seven Bewilderly Sins
With Their Power at an Ebb, the Arbiters of Good Taste Face Ambivalent Audiences and Bewildering Times
Opinion by Tao Jonez
Posted: September 30, 2009
Once was a time when critics ruled art as giants … when an acerbic wit could close a Broadway production … when a rave review would turn out large audiences for an unknown or unappreciated cinematic gem. These were the times when the critics themselves were an integral part of the artistic endeavor they critiqued … when The New York Times chief theater critic Frank Rich - then known as “the Butcher of Broadway” - underscored the distracted disconnect between American politics and pop culture.
The Auteurs of the Auteur Theory: (Top L-R) Film critics André Astruc, Alexandre Bazin, François Truffaut and Andrew Sarris
These were also the times when L’Ecran français critic-filmmaker Alexandre Astruc proposed “la caméra-stylo” (movie camera as author’s pen) … when Cahiers du cinéma magazine co-founder André Bazin articulated the idea of a director’s vision … when Cahiers du cinéma critic-filmmaker François Truffaut expounded the “la politique des auteurs” (the policy of authors) … when The Village Voice film critic Andrew Sarris repackaged Truffaut’s thoughts as the “Auteur Theory” … when The New Yorker film critic Pauline Kael challenged the limits and even the validity of this French “New Wave” concept … and when tenets of that same theory found their way into the curricula of prestigious film schools and, eventually, influenced the “creative rights” doctrine of the Directors Guild of America.
That was then. But as first confirmed in 2006 with The Da Vinci Code’s near record-shattering opening box office bonanza - despite tepid advance word and mixed reviews - a new paradigm now exists between film critics and filmgoers. Today the broadcast and print media’s role as a cultural gatekeeper has been substantially destabilized by the Internet and other new media. People today prefer information that’s quick, concise, and on point. Just say it - is the film good or bad?
The Da Vinci Code
Of course, even in the form of a simple thumbs up or thumbs down verdict, moviegoers are now less trusting of any critic’s judgment - giving rise to aggregation review sites like Metacritic.com and RottenTomatoes.com.
Critically Critiquing the Critics
Movie critics find themselves trapped inside an awkward time warp within the history of their tradition. The Digital Revolution has already changed things so fundamentally, and will change things again and again for many years to come. Now critics seem uncertain what role they should play: whether they should uphold high culture with passionate advocacy, or whether they should suppress personal opinion in favor of consumer reporting.
This confusion of focus within the critical community makes moviemakers and movie audiences all the more wary of movie reviews - the reviews, mind you, not the reviewers … most movie critics are fine people. Critics simply are making bewildered choices in their take on the movies. Hate the sin, love the sinner. Below are the most irksome critical sins … at least from the perspective of the content professional:
The Seven Bewilderly Sins of Movie Critics
1. PRIDE: Lacking in humility of judgment… Very many critics review movies based entirely on whether a movie appeals to that critic’s personal tastes. Then, if the critic has been displeased by the movie, the critic will see that displeasure as an unpardonable crime that - sha-zaaam … Dr. Jekyll … ka-pow … Mr. Hyde - conjures forth their inner demon with the evil mandate from the Dark Side to warn all audiences against that movie. Never mind that most moviegoers - and even most of that critic’s readers - do not share the same highbrow tastes of the movie critic.
Not every book in the bookstore was written for the aficionados of William Shakespeare. Similarly, the content industry must entertain a wider range of audiences than just that.
How to Recognize an Auteur
What They Don’t Say in Film School
Prototypical auteur Sir Alfred Hitchcock
The notion of an “auteur” filmmaker began as a way of grouping and academically appreciating films based on the oeuvre of prominent creatives who, though working within the restrictions of assigned genres and scripts under the old studio system, nevertheless succeeded in imposing a distinctive sensibility. The intent was to validate film as an autonomous art form capable of maestro-driven, original film stories in contrast with the stale adaptations of the French “Tradition of Quality.” So besides directors, the original Auteur Theory also could include luminary producers (e.g. Walt Disney, George Lucas), an occasional screenwriter of prominence (e.g. Neil Simon, David Mamet), and even movie star-directors (e.g. Orson Welles, Clint Eastwood).
An auteur was any outstanding filmmaker who could blow away the stuffy boredom of convention with a breath of fresh cinematic imagination.
(L-R) Hyphenate-auteurs Clint Eastwood, George Lucas, Walt Disney and Orson Welles
Yet for promotional reasons, the auteur concept was quickly co-opted to refer principally to storyteller directors with their own distinctive personal vision. That’s a far more romantic and compelling, but simplistic idea: the film director as Horatio Hornblower, almighty captain of his ship and master of the cinematic seas. It’s also much easier to sell a single “auteur” as part of a film’s ad campaign.
In truth, however, from concept until completion of a motion picture, a good production team often will resemble a professional sports team - with the field plays called sometimes by the team captain (the director), sometimes by the head coach (the producer), and sometimes by the front office (the studio/financier). The producer and the director will function by design as an adversarial check-and-balance on the other’s subjective impulses (i.e. megalomania). Consequently most films actually require a relay race of storytellers who pass the baton through their individual creative imprints at various stages of the filmmaking process.
For example, as pointed out by the late Pauline Kael, Orson Welles’ auteur classic Citizen Kane would have been substantially less remarkable without the unique contributions of co-screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz and cinematographer Gregg Toland. Certainly renowned auteur Alfred Hitchcock declined as a filmmaker after the dispersal of his elite production team in 1963 following The Birds.
Aaron Eckhart Happens; Marketers Not So Much
"You’re making lemons out of lemonade." - Martin Sheen in “Love Happens”
Analysis
Posted: September 21, 2009
Aaron Eckhart with Jennifer Aniston in "Love Happens"
A funny thing happened this weekend on the way to Love Happens. When we walked through the theater doors, we could have sworn we bought tickets to the latest romantic comedy starring two of Hollywood’s hottest - Aaron Eckhart and Jennifer Aniston. I mean, the lobby poster steamed romance. The preview trailer sang romance … and comedy. The theater guides actually printed the words “romantic comedy.” And my wonderfully enthusiastic woman swooped me up so fast in the direction of the movie house that I nearly floated skyward like a kite.
But when we found our seats - POOF! … presto change-o - magically, not much comedy and perhaps less romance.
What we got instead was the story of a widower confronting his grief over the loss of his wife, egged on by the prospect of a new love. More accurately, then, you might classify Love Happens as a romance drama. A perfectly fine movie, mind you, with a tour de force performance from Aaron Eckhart, emotionally-charged bits from Martin Sheen and John Carroll Lynch, and plenty of charm from Jennifer Aniston in an otherwise nonplussed supporting role.
Still, something of a buzz kill for an audience all revved up for a different experience. The film title is an outright canard. So is the ad campaign. And pre-release, the critics were silent; apparently kept away from advance screenings because Universal’s studio marketers did not want them to tell the public. Good grief, you’d think this old-fashioned personal drama was the fine print on an adjustable rate mortgage.
- “Brand New Day” was the appropriate title
Reading between the lines of that fine print, we can surmise what went on… Filmmakers Brandon Camp and longtime partner Mike Thompson (Dragonfly) had a small arty project. They called it Brand New Day - an absolutely spot-on terrific title for this film! Relativity Media got behind it. Eckhart and Aniston, both of whom periodically take on less mainstream material, signed on … which in turn brought in Universal Studios to co-finance. Given the cost of studio overhead, we guestimate Universal could not afford to turn on its office lights for projects budgeted much under $15 million. So with talent and studio commitments, Brand New Day’s budget moved upward. All the tenpercenter agencies now could make more money and could pat each other on the back for their deal-making prowess. Perhaps deep down the filmmakers knew better. But who would rock the boat with all these now house-proud agents about being handed more money since they had Eckhart and Aniston AND their first shot at directing and producing a major feature film?
Of course, tossing extra money at a film project seldom increases the inherent demographic appeal of its concept by very much. Brand New Day began as a small slightly arty “worth-doing” drama and, upon completion, remained so. Now the whiz kids in Universal’s marketing department were charged with the do-or-die mission of recouping the studio’s 50% negative costs plus their own department’s heavy marketing costs and overhead. They would need an opening weekend gross somewhere north of $7.5 million.
Table 1 - "Love Happens" marquee package appraisal as a specialty film
Using our own Marquee Stars package calculator in Table 1 above, correctly classifying the picture as specialty & genre product, we calculate the package strength for these combined marquee elements at an anticipated opening weekend gross of $6.22 million. Our package calculator is actually intended as a measure of relative strength between different package combinations but, nevertheless, can often anticipate good ballpark performance numbers in a pinch. When further adjusted downward for genre, subject, and prevailing market conditions, the picture’s package strength might even dip as low as $3.47 million - ouch - in all cases well below the studio break even requirement for $7.5 million.
Michael Herbig Remains Germany’s Top BO Director
"Wickie" Dominates German Box Office
Writer-director-comedian Michael "Bully" Herbig
German writer-director-actor Michael Herbig scored the 3rd best all-time opening for a German language film over the past weekend at nearly $12.5 (€8.53) million with Wickie und die starken Männer - Der Pfeil (Vicky the Viking). Based on a 1974 German animated TV series, the film follows the comedic adventures of a timid Viking boy. Previously Herbig wrote, directed and produced the Star Trek parody Raumschiff Surprise - Periode 1 (Starship Surprise - Episode 1), the all-time top-opening German language film, as well as the Western parody Der Schuh des Manitu (Manitou’s Shoe), the all-time top-grossing German film.
Herbig, nicknamed “Bully” after a jersey he wore during soccer practice, began his comedy career with the morning show Langemann und die Morgencrew (Longman and the Morning Crew) before moving to German television as writer-director-actor-host for the skit comedy shows Bullyparade and Bully & Rick where he tried out several different Saturday Night Live-style parodies. His first theatrical smash hits were based on characters and themes voted for by the show’s audience.
(Michael Herbig’s US representation: Imprint Entertainment. German representation: herbX film GmbH)
France Nominates “Un Prophète” as Best Foreign Film
Director Jacques Audiard and actor Tahar Rahim
Having already won this year’s 62nd Cannes Grand Prix, director Jacques Audiard’s prison thriller Un prophète (A Prophet) has been selected as France’s entry in the foreign language film category for the 82nd Academy Awards, scheduled for the 7th of March 2010. Audiard, best known for the 2006 César Awards Best Picture De battre mon coeur s’est arête (The Beat that My Heart Skipped) about a man who must choose between a career in crime or classical music, relied upon ex-con technical advisers to help create an authentic ambiance for the present suspenser again focused upon a malleable young man confronting a hardened criminal world.
Til Schweiger
Still Germany's Best Kept Secret
Til Schweiger as an "Inglorious Basterd"
Beyond his flashy action cameos in international films such as Inglorious Basterds, King Arthur and Lara Croft 2, Til Schweiger remains the biggest box office star in the strategically important German-speaking market. However at home, the handsome actor is known less for his action roles than for his Matthew McConaughey-style comedy romances, most recently 1 ½ Ritter (Knight and a Half), Keinohrhsasen (Rabbit without Ears) and Barfuss (Barefoot). Schweiger has starred in four of the top-10 grossing German films of all time including Raumschiff Surprise (Starship Surprise) which set the record for the highest opening weekend gross.
Better known on the German circuit for romantic comedy
Schweiger was cast fresh out of Cologne Theatre School as a regular on the popular German soap Lindenstraße (Linden Street) which, in turn, also landed him his first starring film role in the hit comedy Manta, Manta (Racing in the Streets). Subsequently, his film performances have earned him Best Actor Awards at the Max Ophüls Festival, the Moscow Film Festival and the Polish Film Festival, as well as the Ernst Lubitsch Award for producing, writing, directing and starring in Keinohrhsasen.
Til Schweiger lives most of the year in Germany. He has four children with American wife, model Dana Carlsen.
(Til Schweiger’s US representative: Anonymous Content. German representative: Barefoot Films)
Mastering the Art of Tarantino
Who’s Afraid of the King of Cool?
Opinion by Tao Joenz
Posted: September 9, 2009
Quentin Tarantino - The Reigning King of Cool
Like fine wine, fine filmmakers get better with age. The more they practice their craft, the steadier and more effective their creative choices. That old practice-makes-perfect bromide is not so hard to understand. Surprisingly, though, sometimes the same holds true for their audiences. The more we watch an evolving filmmaker’s work, the more we appreciate his acquired mastery. I count myself among the latter for the art of Quentin Tarantino.
I admit I’ve come last to the party. But my journey has been difficult.
When Tarantino first appeared on the festival circuit with Reservoir Dogs, I thought he was absurdly overrated: A storyline lifted from Ringo Lam’s City on Fire (Lung fu fong wan), starring Chow Yun-Fat, provided the dramatic chassis upon which to string unending profanity, unwatchable violence, and a denouement with a magic gunshot that could only have hit its target in a bad B movie. Okay, Tarantino had a tiny budget. No reshoots. And didn’t that same magic bullet conclude George Steven’s classic big budget Western Shane in the shootout between Alan Ladd and Jack Palance? To my mind, however, the critics who raved about Reservoir Dogs did so only because it won the Sundance Grand Jury Prize - owing in part to home court insider festival favoritism - and because that trophy intimidated critics into biting their tongues rather than report what they really thought. If Reservoir Dogs had a redeeming moral meaning, I would not have known because I was too incensed by the contrived ugliness of the cinematic experience.
Jackie Chan Gets Dramatic
Jackie Chan as Stealhead in "Shinjuku Incident"
In Shinjuku Incident, an uncharacteristic non-comedic passion project from Jackie Chan, produced by his longtime management partners and distributed comfortably out of sight of international family audiences, Chan explores a more mature and darker dramatic range as a socially-conscious anti-hero who cheats, steals, kills mercilessly, and even sleeps with a prostitute.
Chinese star Ziyi Zhang channels Julia Roberts
Ziyi Zhang in "Sophie's Revenge"
Bingbing Fan
Often regarded as the Chinese Julia Roberts, international sex symbol Ziyi Zhang (Golden Globe nominee: Memoirs of a Geisha, Hero, House of Flying Daggers, Rush Hour 2, Golden Horse nominee: Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon) boldly ventures into an actual Julia Roberts-style story with Sophie’s Revenge in a genre not so very well-established on the Chinese circuit. Also featured as her romantic rival is charismatic newcomer Bingbing Fan. Both women speak English.
Our Marquee Appraisal System
The Calculation behind the Package Calculator
A few factors affecting motion picture profitability
Even in today’s speed-of-lightning information age, content executives and filmmakers still spend many crucial hours of their professional lives weighing the advantages of this over that prospective motion picture package (the combination of producer, story, director and stars). Yet how does a sensible decision-maker decide which movie stars to seek, which package to “greenlight” or which finished film to acquire without losing sight of the financial bottom line?
A MarqueeStar Is Born
HOLLYWOOD - In the beginning Vaudeville created the theater circuit. And Edison invented the film projector. But the celluloid heavens were dull, and without life, so Hollywood concocted movie stars. And has commanded them forth globally ever since…
Today Marquee Stars SM proudly presents our Marquee Appraisal Guide SM - an innovative approach to charting the headliners who power the cinematic universe. Apart from the traditional surveys of panel audiences (Nielsen Company), or of industry sales people (Forbes Star Currency, UlmerScale), or of departing moviegoers (CinemaScore), or of set-top viewers (TNS), or of website clickers (STARmeter), or of movie reviewers (Celebrity Tomatometer), or of online gamesters (Hollywood Stock Exchange) - each of which provides its unique perspective - our Marquee Appraisal Guide ranks brand name film talent based fundamentally on direct financial criteria: e.g. their adjusted opening weekend average (OWA) and adjusted average world gross (AWG).
“Brilliant,” you may be thinking. ”But that’s just obvious.”
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Recent Foreign Language Films
Khan (Bollywood)
Kandahar (Russian)
Brothers - Secret Reunion (Korean)
Ishqiya (Bollywood)
Golden Slumber (Japanese)
Younger Brother (Japanese)
Harmony (Korean)
14 Blades (Chinese)
Our Russia (Russian)
Oceans (French)
Gainsbourg (French)
Friendship! (German)
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Top Foreign Language Films 2009
Red Cliff 2 (Chinese)
Rookies (Japanese)
Man som hatar kvinnor (Scandinavian)
Haeundae (Korean)
The Founding of a Republic (Chinese)
Wickie und de starken Manner (German)
Le petit Nicolas (France)
National Athlete: Take Off (Korean)
Coco before Chanel (French)
Flickan som lekte med elden (Scandinavian)
